The G20
Presidency has come to India at a time when the world is seen to be getting bi
polar with serious faultlines drawn. Russia Ukraine war has become defining to
a such an extent that shadows of a world war are being increasingly felt across
the globe. Echoing the sentiment of PM
Modi, External Affairs S Jaishankar, stating the agenda for G20 Foreign
Ministers’ discussions, emphasized, ‘It includes the challenges of food, fertilizers
and fuel security.’ He minced no words saying that ‘these are truly make-or-break issues
for developing countries and such issues should not be relegated to the
periphery of the international discourse.’
But what we
saw was exactly the opposite. The entire Foreign Ministers Meet was hijacked on
the issue of Russia Ukraine war with clearly a deep chasm between the factional
world divided by US & Europe (NATO) vs Russia, China on the other.
It will be
worth examining the changing geopolitical scenario and if India will be able to
seize the opportune moment.
So, as much
as the world is losing on multilateralism, the fact is that this is a period of
transformational change, from what was a fairly stable international order
after the end of the cold war into a period which is undergoing big changes
brought about by technology, change in the balance of powers, a shift of global
centre of gravity from Trans Atlantic to Trans Pacific & India is very much
part of that shift. Analysts say it is in periods of such big change
historically that opportunities open up for emerging powers to expand their influence
to take advantage of them & these are those times when geopolitics is in
constant change & spaces are opening up for countries like India to play a
greater role. As per Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary, the world cannot
see effective solutions to these challenges unless India is on board with
respect to its contributions when the key challenges before the world are
climate change, global health issues like the pandemic, issues of biodiversity.
The steady
rise in India’s own capabilities & power is a moment of opportunity for us.
Today we are the 5th largest economy in the world. Even though our per capita
income is quite low our micro impact on the global economy is quite visible. We
are set to overtake china as the largest population in the world and are also
relatively speaking younger population compared to others.
However we
have our share of challenges too. We have a major threat in the east from China,
from across the border in the north and west from Pakistan, which means that
our security environment has not greatly improved in the last few years on our
neighborhood.
What is the role that India can play
India is
today perhaps in one of the more favorable moments in history which if handled
deftly can catapult us to influence both in the region and globally. The G20
Presidency is a unique opportunity to play a leadership role to deal with some
of the major geopolitical issues particularly Ukraine which has impacted food
security, energy security and global economy through disruptions in supply
chains other than being a military issue.
That the
Global South and its concerns have not been represented at G20 was flagged by
India adequately. Prime Minister Modi in his opening address at G20 Foreign
Ministers meet categorically spoke about issues that concerned developing
nations. The fact that many countries in the world are looking at India to
provide certain degree of a leadership role on dealing with some of the major
issues is what qualifies India to be the voice of global south.
Climate
Change being the next big challenge for the world is believed to have already
crossed the tipping point, experts say. As Chair we must try to get the G20 to
focus attention on it as this is an issue of direct relevance to India & to
the rest of the developing world.
Highlighting
the country’s role in contributing to global solutions, S Jaishankar stated, ‘India
has undertaken development projects in 78 countries and has actively encouraged
exchanges and capability building. Even during Covid pandemic, India made a
conscious effort at contributing to global solutions.’
Intertwined Economic & Foreign
Policy
No Foreign
policy can succeed in isolation from economic development. In the absence of
economic growth the potential of an active foreign policy are bound to be sub
optimal.
Ambassador
Shyam Saran says, ‘This is the geopolitical moment for us because the American,
Japanese, QUAD, are all seeing up to India…that if India is powerful and strong
there will be balance in Asia. There is no other country that can do that. All
friendly nations are looking up to India as a very important partner. There are
major countries that are invested in making us strong.’ Giving the example of
China, Saran said, China is a historical example. China utilized the
geopolitical advantage when from 1971 they presented themselves as ally of the
US who considered the Soviet Union as their main geopolitical threat. They got
high technology from US, got capital from US, so from the western countries
too. Even Japan.’
But the way
the Finance Ministers & Foreign Ministers meet rolled out with practically
no consensus and neither any joint outcome statement all the chances of the
final result of the G20 being derailed seem bright. We saw Bali summit stalled
by the G7 on Russia Ukraine issue, the discussions in New Delhi too was an
acrimonious exchange of political darts between Blinkin & his European
allies with Lavrov. Having politicised the forum, the West has used every
global platform to denounce Russia although the reality is also that any anti
war sentiment from the global south did not ever dissuade the West from furthering
their geopolitical interests anywhere be it Asia or Africa or the Middle East. India’s
insistence on the agenda of developmental interests of the South found little
response from the powerful G7. In this scenario it seems doubtful that this G20
may bring India centre stage for any change in the geoeconomic environment that
we seek. Not only there seems a declining relevance of the forum to global
economic governance but India may also find itself in a condition to choose
sides. The success of India’s Presidency will depend on how India navigates its
leadership role with some out of the box or creative diplomacy. In this time of
history when India is at an advantageous frame of being friends across both
camps, the challenge of forging a consensus being dim we hope that the
culmination does not just go down merely as photo ops, glitzy venues and red
carpets.
On an
optimistic note Ambassador Dyaneshwar Muley says, ‘India has truly seized the moment
and is likely to give new shape and meaning to G20 Presidency. Those who never
understood its import are now part of G20. It’s a ‘Jan Bhagidari’ venture. For
the first time citizens have interest in the final outcome of G20 presidency.
For India this may herald a new chapter in its diplomacy.’
The summit G20 will be in September
when all nation Heads will be congregating in New Delhi. Though an opportunity
for India to do the balancing act it will be test of sorts for India’s diplomatic heft. What shape will Russia Ukraine war take by then in this fast
developing scenario will be a matter of concern to the entire world and will
shape the geopolitics.
Tags: #G20 New Delhi, #Russiaukrainewar, #Globalsouth, #SergevLavrov, #USRussiarelations #Shyamsaran #Diplomacy #Internationalrelations
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Very incisive analysis
Nice Analysis