Will China bend with a bargain on sanction listing

In solidarity with India and demonstrating tangible action
against terrorism, France is the first country that has blocked Masood Azhar’s
assets and has promised to put him on EU’s list of terrorists. This after China
refused to budge at UNSC Resolution 1267 sanctions committee again for the
fourth time on the listing of Masood Azhar, founder of Jaish e Mohammad, as a
global terrorist on March 14, 2019.
Post Pulwama attack and Balakot strikes ample proofs given
to the world community by India of Pakistan sponsoring terror on India’s soil,
China choose to keep its response to minimum semantics by issuing a last minute
statement that said, ‘a solution acceptable to all had to be found’, that
indicated a veto on banning the JeM founder at United Nation Security Council.
While it didn’t come as a surprise to New Delhi it was ‘disappointing’ as the
Indian government said. The critics and the opposition are up and about
questioning the Wuhan spirit, general elections being a few days away.
The gains and the losses of this exercise will shape the
contours of future engagements of not just the sub continent but that of South
Asia and the rest of the world. China was again cornered and pitched against
the world on the issue of supporting terror. The international outreach by
India was of no mean measure even though the losses may be there in future to
tell.
The endeavour and energy invested in mustering global
support in our fight against terror saw all major countries- The US, UK, France
who are permanent UNSC members, the other 10 non-permanent UNSC members –
Germany, Poland, Belgium, Equatorial Guinea, Japan, Australia, Italy,
Bangladesh, Maldives and Bhutan, even the Quad consisting of US, Japan and
Australia who were co sponserers, on the same page with India signalling
strategic alignment. This helped India’s case of pushing the cause of Masood
Azhar as a global menace and a key element of the global fight against
terrorism. The very fact that US, UK and France moved the proposal to list Masood
Azhar at UNSC was a proof of the broad global support India was able to rally
on the terror issue.  
The shift in China’s response as compared to 2009 after
Mumbai attacks when India had moved a proposal in the UNSC Resolution 1267
sanctions committee and Beijing blocked it, was palpable and encouraging.
Retrospectively in February 2016 after the Pathankot attack, when India put
forward a fresh proposal China intervened at Pakistan’s behest and placed a
technical hold on India’s move and did so again in October 2016. It
subsequently used its veto in December 2016 a day before the end of the
technical hold, then on Jan 19, 2017 and in November 2017.
The tilting conciliatory vibes, presuming to be germane to Wuhan
spirit is the best guess. This time around what was significant was the
calibrated position that China took. In the wake of Balakot strikes the Dragon
did not slam India for violation of Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty signalling
a deviation. China also signed the UNSC condemnation statement which named
Jaish and criticised the terrorist attack in Pulwama. Notwithstanding China
stands contradicted despite its own oft stated position against terrorism. In
the last minute bid to persuade China against blocking the proposal the US put
out a statement saying that failure to designate Masood would go against the
”shared goals” of regional stability and peace.  A message to the dragon.
Wuhan overarching, New Delhi too despite the hectic
diplomatic outreach, had a mellowed down response to China’s veto as compared
to 2016 when India had come out with a blistering attack naming China four
times in a statement calling out ‘Chinese block’ as double standards in the fight
against terrorism.          
Another point of view emanating from the studied responses
from both sides was reflected from inside the power corridors of New Delhi. A
source in South Block said that the ‘multilayered relationship’ with China
makes it difficult to ”rock the boat”. ”We want the elections to get over
and the new government to take charge before any such measures are
taken.” 
For realty check it is important to know that as per New
Delhi Azhar is a valuable strategic asset of Pakistan military and intelligence
establishment. On the other hand China has invariably used Pakistan as a
‘strategic weapon’ against India, sources say. Precisely the reason for China
blocking Azhar. Its not just on Azhar, China has also been jeopardizing India’s
aspirations of Nuclear Supply Group membership. Add to it India’s opposition to
China’s CPEC, a project of its ambitious goals of BRI, which has made China
fume and fret.  ”China would not have agreed this time because that would have meant losing face due to pressure not only from India but also the other four permanent members of the UNSC. There’s a sense that next time China will not block this and find a face saving way out. So before that it will lean in Pakistan to deal with Massod Azhar in a way which does not put China in an awkward position,” says China expert and former Ambassador Anil Wadhwa.
So what’s ahead now. Does the much invested India China
relations stand at stake in the context of the non listing of a global
terrorist! As of now the ‘Technical hold’ gives India nine months to lobby with
China on Masood Azhar listing. The need of the hour is to find leverages with
China for it to get going as per India’s demands. As proposed by eminent foreign
affairs experts India will need to find something to bargain with China to
bring it around, a transactional point to influence Beijing’s behaviour. ‘This
has got nothing to do with land exchanges,’ as former Ambassador of India to
China Gautam Bambawale said. For example in 2017 when China wanted to become
Vice President of the Financial Action Task Force India agreed to support its
candidature against Japan, which is a close strategic partner of India, in
return for Beijing’s support for Pakistan’s ”Grey listing”. A bargain of a
trade-off on a vote or a crucial election can be India’s trump card. The FATF
gives India an opportunity wherein it can try and persuade the international
community to even blacklist Pakistan by May September this year if Islamabad
doesn’t take action against terrorist and terror groups including Masood Azhar
and Hafiz Saeed.
So how important is this one man in the story of growing
global partnerships among countries and continents! At the end of the day it
would be unwise to spend too much of strategic and diplomatic capital on
listing Azhar because for one the benefits of the listing are hardly clear
going by how Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jamat-e Dawa ie Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar
are flourishing in Pakistan since last 10 years since the former’s listing. Secondly
it runs the risk of reducing India’s multifaceted relationship with China to
one issue, a relationship which has civilizational and business commonalities
since ages.
As China experts say it would be best in this scenario to
keep up diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to give up its ‘strategic assets’
anyways including FATF and also pressurizing China internationally as well as
strategically without affecting relations built with great effort and patience
over the years.      
Please follow and like us:

You may also like

No Comments

  1. Too many nations have too much of financial and commercial exposure with China.. Merely having an equal population size will not be of much consequence until India gains substantially in economic size and international trade.. Money makes the mare go .

  2. Quite knowledgeable and very informative topic especially on jeopardising India's aspirations of Nuclear Supply Group Membership. In all wonderful writeup.

  3. Now it's real time for India to fight back with issues of terrorism when the international support is there.very nice n well researched article ….

  4. …it's a good argument to suggest: we should not let our time and energy spent on the dragon go in waste…while tactfully making it realise our likes, dislikes and priorities…all said and done in today's diplomacy money matters more than muscle…and don't forget it is the world's second largest economy….the dragon is now on the backfoot…it's the time for us to keep our composure and yet drive a hard bargain…

  5. Very well researched article, one needs to understand what the motive behind Chinas stand to protect Azar Masood and others. One plausible cause could be to protect Chinas economic interest in Pakistan. Pakistan Army and religious groups have the control over the nation

  6. Very well researched article. Ultimately it is the macro econimics which matters. The lobbying or the support depends on the finacial gains a country gets by supporting India . India can put more presser by reducing trade with China, they should atleast go for reducing the trade deficit with China.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *