India’s neighborhood presently is rather fragmented. After Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, Bangladesh is the third neighbor witnessing a regime change ridden with violence and unrest, with similar playbook. A popular uprising against an unpopular leader, followed by his/her fleeing, mobs taking over the Palace/Parliament spaces, loot, vandalize and destroy public property, with security forces no where in sight.
Sheikh Haseena, a friend of India, ruled Bangladesh for 15 years in which Bangladesh saw its peak of growth and development. The economy boomed and Bangladesh was the only country on the region after India that grew at the rate of 6% and was set to be the fastest growing economy in the world as per Rating agencies.
Haseena ruled with a heavy hand, her opponents say. Freedom of speech curbed, opposition bombarded with legal litany and put behind bars, some fled to outside countries, unemployment rose and quota added nail to the coffin. People, including students saw Haseena as a dictator. The protests were the result of pent up anger of last few years.
Bangladesh is a country with huge strategic importance. The Bay of Bengal in the south falls in the larger region of the Indian Ocean. An island called St Martin’s is a bone of contention for the superpowers that be. Haseena was a pro India leader smartly playing up China and the US, both vying for a hold on the Indian Ocean with military bases, capacity building and Reconnaissance Exercises. The Opposition in Bangladesh have shown enough signs of anti India sentiment and therefore anything to topple Haseena would have been advantage both powers. Haseena’s hastened return from a visit to Beijing where she went seeking an assistance of $ 5 Billion, followed with the Teesta project landing in India’s lap just before she demitted office, was a sign enough of anti China sentiment.
As for the US, thanks to its rivalry with China and its nature of not being able to see popular governments last a three or four terms, the unseen hand of the US is said to have worked its way. In an interview to ET, Haseena said, ‘I could have remained in power if I had surrendered the sovereignty of Saint Martin Island and allowed America to hold sway over the Bay of Bengal. I beseech to the people of my land, ‘Please do not allow to be manipulated by radicals.’” She was insistent that this regime change in Dhaka was the masterminded by Washington.
On the other hand the deep state of Pakistan has always had a stake in Bangladesh. Experts say Pak agencies and Opposition have been in cahoots with the radicals for creating political ruckus and religious stirs to keep unrest fomenting. Having its vested interests in Bangladesh, for its yesteryears linkages, Pakistan’s intentions can be more than clear.
Even after 10 days of anarchy, a hopeful interim govt may be in place with a leader of people’s choice but what is disturbing is the communal targeting. Hindus are being attacked, looted, even killed. Temples are torched as hundreds of Hindus are desperate to cross borders to India. Mohammad Yunus, the caretaker premier has appealed for peace and protecting the minorities. Contrarily there are reports on social media that also amplify how Muslims are protecting Hindus and their properties from arsonists. It will be seen how the the Indian government reacts to this. With Haseena still on Indian soil India is on the razors edge to balance the good will of the people of a country with cultural and social linkages going back to ages.
How is India affected by a nation and an important neighbor turned upside down !
Well, Bangladesh under Haseena was a bankable friend of India. Mohammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate, very distinguished and popular, comes with a balanced approach but a US bent. The Opposition with BNP and Jamat e Islami have shown antagonistic signs from earlier times. The work of this interim govt will be to see elections are held in the country and peace and stability returns. A stable Bangladesh is in India’s favour. Unrest in Bangladesh will increase immigration from Indian borders. States like West Bengal, Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur, Meghalaya may see exodus with extremist elements in company. Many joint and bilateral projects may be suffer. Above all our policy of people centric assistance and development will depend on the decision makers leanings.
Our best bet is to see what is in India’s best interest. Pragmatism is in moving forward accepting the reality. There is no other alternative than to engage with the government of the day. If the world, by the same logic, can engage with Taliban, a democratic semblance of an interim government here should not be impossible. But it will be prudent that Delhi take a strategic overview of where its interests lie in this paradigm shift.
