Doklam is again in news. The recent statement by
Bhutanese PM that China has an equal stake in our boundary issue is an
indicator enough as much as it gives away PLA long term designs, should worry
us. Even though Bhutan is under the security ambit of India, China is assiduously
working at nibbling away this geography that will give it strategic leverage
over the entire Sikkim Arunachal region.
India’s economic dependency on China is a defining
factor in many ways. Whereas in 2006 about 6% of exports were from China, by
2018 it was almost 40%. As a result we have a live boundary and dependency
and for the last two and a half to three years there have been no signs of either the
status quo being restored on the border or some political or other leverage
being given to change China’s behavior. Also domestic politics in either
country does not permit real change or movement in the relationship.
After Xi Jingping has sealed his lifetime chairmanship
of the Communist Party its for him to deliver on what China sees as her moment
in history and future. And this is not just about how he gets back China’s
economy rolling, engineering social harmony, boosting growth, its also about
fulfilling ‘China Dream’ of being a superpower. The brokering of a much famous
truce, almost an impossible, between Saudi and Iran has etched them as a
successful mediator as much it has been able to signal the receding of American
power.
Foreign Policy experts say China operates on a
relative balance of power as she perceives it. As long as she thought US was
superior and powerful, until 2008, she went along loyally with the US. After
2008 financial crisis when she thought that the end had come for western
dominance their approach changed. They want to now consolidate their gains
& appear strong. In that condition assumptions are that they are not going
to give us back (Indian territory seized by them) much at least for a few years
till the situation changes drastically either within China or elsewhere.
The Inside
Story
Under Xi Jingping Chinese politics too is heading
towards being increasingly nationalist, centralized, authoritarian. A country
that spends more on its internal security than it does on national defense
since Xi came to power in 2012 is an indicator of the state of its society marred
with tension within.
In his 19th
Party Congress Xi minced no words in indicating that China aims at greater
goals of primacy in not just Asia but in the world.
Former NSA
and Ambassador Shiv Shankar Menon says ‘For me the likely outcome is a China
which will be a predominant Asian military power, a global economic power but
will face increasing friction at home. And a powerful frustrated china is not a
good prospect for anyone.’
Before 2019
China accounted for 40% of growth in world economy but now with growth slowed
down & recession in the US & west Europe one sees Sholtz, Macron as also
Ursula von der Leyen of the EU along with Spain calling on Beijing.
The internal
dynamics in China has defined what has happened there in last 3-4 years. 3 things
have happened. Firstly Chinese economy has slowed down tremendously, last year it
was 2.8%. There has been no productivity in China for the last decade. He
cracked down on private sector which actually created jobs instead of state
owned enterprises which he banked on. Property sector inflated with private
investment where most of Chinese people put in their money. Xi has to get that
economy going again. Its his Achilles Heel.
The other is
the problem of social control. China is the world’s strongest surveillance state
with remarkable technologies & data being managed at any moment is stunning. Until 2012 they used to publish figures for mass incidents, meaning any
protest involving more than a 100 people. In early 90’s there were around
2000-3000 protests a year as they acknowledge. By 2012 the number rose to 200,000
and so they stopped publishing and started building this surveillance
state. Acquired from countries like Malaysia and some others they have exported
this technology to 89 countries around the world pre covid. Its very attractive
to any potential dictator autocrat as Menon says.
Thirdly internal
security is a major issue. If one goes by his party Congress report he has
securitized everything. There are around 13 kinds of security including
ideological security, says a China hawk. Nothing is known enough as it is
increasingly a closed and a centralised system.
A former top Diplomat who knows China like the back of
his hand revealed that in Chinese system earlier the coordination was only at
the Vice Minister level, equivalent to secretary in the govt. In today’s China
all are supposed to report to Xi and his secretariat directly which has taken
away the incentive of competition and reporting the truth. They would rather
speak what the boss wants to hear.
The BRI
China’s Belt
and Road Project has also not been a huge favorite with many countries. The
problem is China has already committed a trillion dollars in BRI and can’t
suddenly pull it back. In 2016 they lost trillion dollars of capital flight out
of China when they had to close down. Having seen the energy crisis courtesy
Ukraine they need the Middle East now.
Ukraine has
affected BRI very badly and the push back by countries which otherwise really
depended on China…Khazakistan, even Pakistan has tremendous local resistance to
BRI projects mainly because BRI projects don’t use locals, local companies, so
resentment is building up across the border.
Menon says ‘We
need to look at our interest. We need to step up our game with our neighbors.
We need to open our economy to them and to integrate the sub continent like we
became the net security providers to some of our neighbors including Bangladesh
which transformed our relations with them.’
He says,
‘India has affinities in the neighborhood that China doesn’t have and China’s
record is not that great. We need to insist that whatever they have built is
open, accessible to us and make commercial sense. That we don’t want another
Hambantota’. In Colombo where 80% stuff is still Indian going through both ways.
US China relations
Xi’s
constraint is at home for which he will seek coexistence and all the talks of globalization. Americans want to stop their competitor and they have the
power. The power balance is in US’s favor. But in economics US & China
are tied together like Siamese twins. So there is a limit to decoupling and what
they can actually do to each other. It is interesting to note the things that
both countries sell other. So whereas US sells primary commodities,
agriculture, aerospace, which is a high end stuff, what China makes is
everything in the middle…light engineering. 98% of all Walmart was selling Chinese
stuff. Decoupling is going to be
very difficult. Ditto with us. We can’t decouple from China even though we have
a terrible strategic rivalry.
As China has
started opening up again after zero covid policy has been given up it has once
again become a very attractive destination for foreign investment.
Former
Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran says ‘Like China we haven’t been able to fully
utilize our demographic dividend to our advantage. China was over a period of 40 yrs like a
giant sponge absorbing technology, knowledge, capital from wherever it could
get.’ As for China’s Global Plus strategy Saran says, not every industry moved
out of China. The ones that shifted were mainly those where there had been rise
in labor cost like textile or some lower end electronic industry.
As China gets aggressive with Taiwan with every single day passing, it will be interesting to watch what turn does US China relations take in the background of Russia Ukraine pot boiling and world order being reset with the Arab world showing signs of forming a block with Russia and China along with North Korea and Iran. History in the making.
Tags: #USChinarelations, #XiJingping, #Chineseeconomy #ShivshankarMenon #ShyamSaran #Chinaprotests #Taiwan #PritiPrakash #Blogger
